H1 pattern

Why Uzbek fruit imports grew +317 % from 2021 to 2024 — and accelerated again in early 2026.

Required facts

Uzbek fruit imports $60 M → $250 M · +317 % · 2021 → 2024 [S01][S04]
Per-category multiples 2021–2024: apples 17× · bananas 3× · mandarins 4× · oranges 5× [S01][S04][S32]
Apple imports alone reached $85 M+ by 2024, the fastest-growing category [S32]
Jan–Feb 2026 fruit & vegetable imports: $100.4 M, +37 % YoY — the curve is accelerating, not flattening [S31]
2025 verification points:
- Oranges Jan–Nov 2025: 23.8 kt / ~$12 M, +7.8 % YoY [S33]
- Dates Jan–Jul 2025: 12.6 kt — new all-time record [S34]
- Bananas H1 2025: 95.3 kt, 98.6 % from Ecuador [S32]
- Table potatoes Jan–Nov 2024: 627 kt / $52.6 M [S35]
2025 supplier rankings on Egypt-relevant lines:
- Oranges: Iran #1 · UAE #2 · Egypt #3 (~2.9 kt) [S33]
- Dates: Iran ~78 % · balance from TN, TR, SA, KZ, AZ, AE [S34]

Intro + headline chart (the +317 % story 2021–2024)
Macro drivers — GDP growth, urbanisation, retail-format modernisation, year-round-fruit consumer expectation, rolling tariff-exemption regime on under-produced lines
Per-category growth breakdown — apples (17×, $85 M+), oranges, mandarins, dates, potatoes
Acceleration check: the Jan–Feb 2026 data point — $100.4 M / +37 % in two months proves the trend is intact and intensifying [S31]
Egypt's current share — #3 on oranges, under-represented on dates, absent-then-emerging on potatoes (mini-tubers shipped 2025) [S33][S34][S37]
The strawberry Jan 2026 opening as a leading indicator [S05][S06][S36]
Forward view — what lines will grow 2026–2028
Implications for Egyptian exporters — where to compete, where the tariff window is open, where supplier concentration is breaking